Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #71-80
Welcome back to 1998. Dante Bichette led MLB with 219 hits, Jose Offerman led with 13 triples, and Mike Piazza signed a record-setting 7-year/$91 million deal with the Mets. Our latest re-examination of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects from that year shows yet again how few of the best minor leaguers convert their potential into great big-league careers.
There’s a reason for that, of course: baseball is a lot harder than it looks. So is predicting which guys will make it and which ones won’t. To the list:
- Mike Lowell, 3B, New York Yankees. Selected in the 20th round of the 1995 draft, Lowell was a late bloomer. His breakout season as a prospect came in 1997, when he hit .315/.401/.562 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus. Lowell spent the following year back at Columbus, earning a late cup of coffee with the big club. In February 1999 the Yankees shipped him to Florida for three prospects who never made it. Lowell’s first season with the Marlins was underwhelming, as he hit just .253/.317/.419 — not the sort of performance one might hope for out of a 25-year-old. Lowell improved the following year and settled in as a solid run producer for a few years before taking another step forward at age 29. Florida traded Lowell to the Boston Red Sox after the 2005 season in the deal that brought Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. Lowell isn’t a superstar, although the fact that he now plays in a large and visible market sometimes causes people to think he is. Over parts of 10 seasons, Lowell has hit .280/.344/.468 (110 OPS+). His most similar players through age 33 are Paul O’Neill, Ron Cey, Doug DeCinces, Ken Caminiti, and Todd Zeile.
- Rafael Medina, RHP, New York Yankees. Medina threw hard but didn’t do much else. The Yankees traded him to the San Diego Padres on April 22, 1997, as part of the package that landed them Hideki “Fat Toad” Irabu. I actually got to see Medina’s debut in the Padres organization. Nearly eight months later, the Padres shipped Medina and Derrek Lee (who will appear in a future edition of our series) to Florida for right-hander Kevin Brown. Over parts of two seasons, Medina went 3-7 with a 5.96 ERA in 90 2/3 innings. Command was the big problem, as he walked 7.15 per 9 innings during his career. Medina spent 2000 in the Toronto system and 2001 in the St. Louis system. He hasn’t pitched for a big-league organization since, but did make a few appearances for Victoria of the independent Canadian League in 2003 at age 28.
- Jarrod Washburn, LHP, Anaheim Angels. The Angels took Washburn with the first pick in the second round of the 1995 draft out of the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh. This school also produced former big-league second baseman Jim Gantner and current big-league left-hander Jack Taschner. Washburn made his big-league debut on June 2, 1998, working 6 1/3 strong innings and leading the Angels past Kansas City, 7-5. He finished his rookie season with a 6-3 record and 4.62 ERA in 74 innings. After bouncing between the minors and majors in 1999 and 2000, Washburn established himself permanently the following year and has made 25 or more starts in each of the past seven seasons. In 2006 he signed with the Seattle Mariners. Although he hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success there that he did in Southern California, Washburn continues to soak innings. Over parts of 10 seasons, he owns a 93-86 record and 4.07 ERA (110 ERA+).
- Ramon Hernandez, C, Oakland A’s. Hernandez wasn’t even his organization’s best catching prospect in 1998. That honor belonged to A.J. Hinch, whom we’ll discuss in a future installment. As for Hernandez, he first garnered attention following a monster ‘97 season at High-A Visalia in which he hit .361/.422/.572 before faltering in a late-season promotion to Double-A. Hernandez came up to the big club toward the end of June 1999 and hit .279/.363/.397 during his rookie campaign. After three pedestrian seasons with the A’s, he exploded in 2003 at age 27 with a .273/.331/.458 performance. That November, the A’s traded Hernandez to San Diego along with outfielder Terrence Long for outfielder Mark Kotsay. Hernandez enjoyed two solid seasons with the Padres before signing a 4-year, $27.5 million deal with Baltimore. Hernandez set career highs in many offensive categories in 2006 before regressing badly — as will happen with catchers in their thirties — in 2007. Over parts of nine seasons, Hernandez has hit .263/.328/.423 (97 OPS+) in 3932 at-bats. Among his most comparable players through age 31 are several other catchers who aged badly, including Jody Davis, Terry Kennedy, Charles Johnson, and Mike Lieberthal.
- Ramon Ortiz, RHP, Anaheim Angels. Three years is the difference between good and great. According to the Baseball America 2002 Almanac, Ortiz was born March 23, 1976. By the 2003 Almanac, the date had been amended to March 23, 1973. (Do you suppose he got to celebrate all those birthdays at once?) Ortiz had one very nice season in 2002, when he went 15-9 with a 3.77 ERA. At the time, he appeared to be poised for a breakout. Then he got old more quickly than anyone could have guessed and it never happened. Ortiz has been a reasonably dependable starter over parts of nine seasons, compiling an 84-80 record and a 4.90 ERA (91 ERA+) in a little under 1400 innings. My personal favorite game of his came on June 14, 2002, against the Dodgers, when he went the distance and allowed just four hits — all solo home runs.
- Wade Miller, RHP, Houston Astros.. It’s a little scary to think just how good the Astros might have been if Miller had remained healthy. He and Roy Oswalt at the top of that rotation for all those years… But alas, reality had other plans. After spending parts of 1999 and 2000 in Houston, Miller stuck with the big club in ‘01 and fashioned a slick 16-8, 3.40 season. He followed that with a 15-4, 3.28 showing. Miller’s performance slipped in 2003, but at age 26, it appeared to be a blip on the radar. Then came the injuries. Miller worked 187 1/3 innings in ‘03; he’s worked a total of 215 innings since. Over parts of nine seasons, Miller (now 31 years old) owns a 62-46 record with a 4.10 ERA (110 ERA+). His list of top comps through age 30 includes several pitchers whose careers have suffered because of injuries, notably Cal Eldred, Juan Guzman, and Kris Benson.
- Karim Garcia, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s easy to forget that Garcia was an absolute monster prospect. In his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook, John Sickels ranked Garcia #8 among all prospects in baseball. That’s right behind Jason Schmidt and ahead of Scott Rolen if you’re keeping score at home. By ‘98, Garcia’s stock had fallen to the point that the Los Angeles Dodgers left him unprotected for the expansion draft. Arizona snatched him up and he proceeded to hit .222/.260/.381 for the Snakes in his first full big-league season at age 22. That December, he was involved in one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory. The Diamondbacks shipped Garcia to Detroit straight up for Luis Gonzalez, who became the face of the franchise and led the club to its first World Championship in 2001. Garcia, meanwhile, fizzled for the Tigers and soon found himself bouncing around the league. He last played for the Baltimore Orioles in 2004 at age 28. Over parts of 10 seasons, Garcia owns a .241/.279/.424 line (82 OPS+) in 1560 plate appearances. He spent 2006 in Japan, hitting .249/.302/.412 for the Orix Blue Wave, and spent this past winter trying to make his way back to the big leagues. Sounds crazy, but it just might work: the Phillies signed him in January.
- Sidney Ponson, RHP, Baltimore Orioles. Ponson had a great ‘96 season in the Carolina League at age 19, and everyone went nuts over him. The following year didn’t go so well, but he still had youth on his side. Despite having worked just 82 innings (not terribly effective ones at that — 5.06 ERA, 1.79 K/BB) above A-ball, Ponson spent most of 1998 with the big club. Not surprisingly, he struggled, going 8-9 with a 5.27 ERA in 135 innings. Ponson was roughly league average each of the next two seasons before injuries limited him to 23 starts in 2001. Ponson bounced back the following year and then enjoyed his best season in 2003, when he went 17-12 with a 3.75 ERA for Baltimore and the San Francisco Giants. He has been unable to duplicate that success and has spent the past several years bouncing around from team to team. Over parts of 10 seasons, Ponson owns an 82-101 record and a 4.94 ERA (91 ERA+). Knighted in his native Aruba, Ponson also has had his share of legal troubles in the past.
- Robinson Checo, RHP, Boston Red Sox. Checo was a Dominican-born right-hander who spent some time pitching for the Hiroshima Carp in the Japan Central League before coming to the U.S. Checo made just 21 starts in the minors before making his big-league debut on September 16, 1997, in Yankee Stadium. The game didn’t go so well for him or the Red Sox. Checo spent most of ‘98 in the minors, making just two forgettable starts for the big club. Boston let Checo go after the season and in February 1999, the Detroit Tigers signed him. Two months later, they shipped him off to Los Angeles in a deal for Dave Mlicki and Mel Rojas. Checo’s stint with the Dodgers didn’t go so well either, and after spending 2000 with their Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque, he called it a career. His final big-league line: 36.2 IP, 7.61 ERA (59 ERA+). For more on Checo, see his entry at the BR Bullpen.
- Lorenzo Barcelo, RHP, Chicago White Sox. Barcelo provides yet further evidence that a lot can go wrong for a young pitcher. Barcelo established himself as a top prospect in 1996, when he went 12-10 with a 3.53 ERA for Burlington of the Midwest League. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he also had a 3-to-1 K/BB rate. Oh, and he was 18 years old. The following year, Barcelo was a key part of the “White Flag Trade.” His numbers took a slight hit in ‘97, but then injuries limited him to just 74 innings over the next two seasons. Barcelo made it up to the big club in 2000 and pitched well (4-2, 3.69 ERA over 39 innings) out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, his arm woes returned and Barcelo worked only 63 innings over the next three seasons before retiring at age 25 with a career line of 5-3, 4.50 ERA (108 ERA+) over 66 innings.
Wasn’t that fun? Our next installment includes a few marginal big-league talents and one stud switch-hitting outfielder. Until then…
Tags: baseball, baseball america, jarrod washburn, mike lowell, mlb, prospects, ramon hernandez, ramon ortiz, sidney ponson, wade millerRelated Stories
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4 opinions for Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #71-80
Prospects, Meetups, and Fantasy League
Feb 21, 2008 at 8:50 am
[…] seriously stuck in the past. The latest installment in my re-examination of the top prospects of ‘98 is up at Knuckle Curve. Padres relevance? Rafael Medina checks in at #72, Ramon Hernandez at […]
anthony
Feb 22, 2008 at 8:38 am
I remember watching Karim Garcia with the Albuqueruque Dukes in the late 90s and thinking he was going to be a superstar. It seemed like he would do something spectacular every night but for whatever reason it just never carried over to the major leagues. Of course the 5,000 foot altitude may have had something to do with his offensive prowess.
Geoff Young
Feb 22, 2008 at 9:18 am
Good point about the altitude. I also seem to recall some rumblings about his age, although his birthdate never changed as a result of Agegate, so who knows?
Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #31-40
Mar 20, 2008 at 12:35 am
[…] #71-80 […]
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