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Knuckle Curve - Baseball News

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #31-40

by Geoff Young on March 20th, 2008

Previously…

I think 1998 is right around when I first started to realize how difficult it is to develop a big-league catcher. Five backstops made Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects that year, and none of ‘em did much. Still, this latest batch includes a former home-run champion and a Cy Young Award winner…

  1. Cesar King, C, Texas Rangers. As a Latin-American catcher stuck behind Ivan Rodriguez, King drew the inevitable comparisons. Unfortunately, King couldn’t hit. He never reached the big leagues, and his career minor-league line is .248/.311/.377 in 1665 plate appearances. King last played 12 games for Double-A Chattanooga in the Cincinnati Reds organization in 2002. He was 24 that year and hasn’t been seen since.
  2. Dermal Brown, OF, Kansas City Royals. Brown’s is a familiar story: plenty of tools, not enough skills. He received one shot as a big-league regular. In 2001, at age 23, Brown hit .245/.286/.350 (63 OPS+) before losing his job. For a defensively challenged left fielder, that kind of bat just didn’t cut it — not even with the ‘01 Royals. Brown resurfaces every now and then, most recently for three at-bats with the Oakland A’s in 2007. For his career, he’s batting .233/.280/.333 (57 OPS+) in 874 plate appearances. Brown turns 30 at the end of March, but it wouldn’t surprise me if his stint with the A’s last year was his swan song.
  3. Eli Marrero, C, St. Louis Cardinals. Marrero is the one catcher on our list who actually had a decent career. He’s also the one who had the most to overcome. Marrero first came up the big leagues in 1997 and got into 17 games that year. After a nondescript ‘98 season, he got the bulk of the playing time behind the dish and hit .192/.236/.297 (33 OPS+). That is epic: Since 1961, only 11 players have posted a lower OPS+ while logging 300 or more plate appearances. Marrero then missed much of the 2000 season due to thyroid cancer, only to come back the next year and hit .266/.312/.438 (92 OPS+) in 86 games. He followed that with a .262/.327/.451 campaign — and, oh, by the way, he spent most of his time playing the outfield, including 36 games in center. Marrero has played sparingly since then, most recently in 2006 with the Rockies and Mets. Over parts of 10 seasons, he owns a .243/.303/.411 (84 OPS+) batting line. He also has stolen 56 bases, at a slick 84% success rate.
  4. Mike Caruso, SS, Chicago White Sox. Caruso, along with pitcher Lorenzo Barcelo, was part of the “White Flag” trade of 1997. The next spring, despite zero experience above High-A, Caruso made the big club. Amazingly he hit .306/.331/.390 (89+) despite hacking at nearly everything thrown his way. The same approach didn’t work for Caruso in 1999, and he spent the next two seasons at Triple-A — first with the White Sox affiliate, then with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays organization. He didn’t hit a lick either place. Caruso got into 12 games for the Royals in 2002, then apparently retired at the ripe old age of 25.
  5. Ryan Minor, 3B, Baltimore Orioles. Minor was sort of Joe Borchard’s predecessor. Like Borchard, Minor excelled in another sport (basketball), had tools that made scouts drool, was always old for his level, and lacked the necessary skills to play baseball in the big leagues. One in a line of “replacements” for Cal Ripken Jr., Minor saw action in parts of four seasons and hit .177/.228/.259 (26 OPS+). Minor last played at Double-A Charlotte (Marlins) in 2004 at age 30, and had more strikeouts than hits. Minor knocked five home runs during his brief career. His victims weren’t exactly household names: Terry Adams, Nelson Figueroa, Dan Perkins, John Snyder, and Ed Yarnall.
  6. Troy Glaus, 3B, Anaheim Angels. Hey, look, a prospect who turned into a star. It happens. The Angels took Glaus with the third pick overall in the 1997 draft. Glaus, who had played some shortstop at UCLA, immediately turned into a full-time third baseman. He also immediately destroyed minor-league pitching, to the tune of .307/.396/.641 in 109 games at Double- and Triple-A. By the end of his first pro season, Glaus was Anaheim’s starting third baseman. He hit 29 homers in his first full season and followed that up by knocking 47 and winning the AL home-run title at age 23. Glaus has continued to produce ever since, albeit not to those early levels. He also has had trouble staying healthy. Even still, over parts of 10 seasons he’s hitting .254/.358/.500 (121 OPS+), with 277 home runs. Two of Glaus’ most similar players through age 30 are in the Hall of Fame (although both Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson had a much higher OPS+). Glaus bears stronger resemblance to Matt Williams or the man for whom he was traded this past winter, Scott Rolen.
  7. Rolando Arrojo, RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays. One of the Cuban defectors from the mid- to late-’90s (Ariel Prieto, Livan Hernandez), Arrojo featured a funky delivery that kept hitters off balance all throughout his rookie season. He went 14-12 with a 3.56 ERA (133 ERA+) in 1998 and finished second to Oakland outfielder Ben Grieve in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Arrojo slipped considerably each of the next two seasons before rebounding as a reliever for the Red Sox in 2001. After appearing in 29 more games for Boston in 2002, Arrojo pitched nine innings at the Yankees’ Triple-A club in Columbus the following year before calling it quits at age 34 (or thereabouts). Arrojo left the game with a 40-42 record and 4.55 ERA (108 ERA+) in exactly 700 innings.
  8. Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays. What I remember about Halladay’s early years is that he had week peripheral numbers in the minors and then almost spun a no-hitter in his second big-league start. In his first full season, 1999, Halladay went 8-7 with a 3.92 ERA (126 ERA+), but it screamed fluke. His K/9 was below 5, his K/BB was right around 1, he gave up a lot of hits, and he was prone to serving up the long ball. In short, Halladay looked like a great candidate to collapse, and that’s just what he did the next year — in spectacular fashion. He became the 12th pitcher since 1900 to work at least 60 innings and post an ERA+ below 50 (and the only one whose ERA reached double digits). So in 2001 the Blue Jays kicked Halladay all the way back to High-A and reinvented him. He returned to the big club and pitched very well down the stretch. The next year he won 19 games and made the All-Star team. A year after that he won 22 and took home the Cy Young Award. Halladay has battled injuries since then but he’s been remarkably effective when healthy. Through parts of 10 seasons he’s 111-55 with a 3.63 ERA (128 ERA+). Nice comeback, eh?
  9. Braden Looper, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards selected Looper out of Wichita State with the third pick in the 1995 draft. A closer in college, Looper was shifted to starting duty as a pro, but that experiment soon ended and he returned to the bullpen. After two seasons in the minors, Looper came up to the big club in September 1998, made four appearances, and then got shipped to Florida in a deal for shortstop Edgar Renteria. With the Marlins, Looper embarked on his career as generic middle reliever, although his high draft status probably netted him a few more saves than most guys with his skill set. Looper’s best season came in 2004, when he notched 29 saves with the New York Mets and posted an uncharacteristic 2.70 ERA (158 ERA+) in 83 1/3 innings. Last year, after 572 consecutive relief appearances to start his career, Looper made his first big-league start. He went on to make 30 of them in a performance that is best described as “adequate.” For his career, Looper owns a 46-44 record with a 3.88 ERA (110 ERA+) and 103 saves. He also has proven extremely durable, which is more than can be said for his predecessor as closer at Wichita State, Darren Dreifort.
  10. Ruben Rivera, OF, San Diego Padres. My two enduring (if not endearing) memories of Rivera are the time he launched a ball into the upper deck at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia and the time he entered as a pinch-runner and promptly got picked off first base to end the game on the third-to-first move that never works. I doubt I’ll ever see a more exasperating player in my lifetime. Originally signed by the New York Yankees, Rivera came to San Diego in the Hideki Irabu trade. Rivera spent two seasons as the Padres starting center fielder and displayed an incredible inability to hit a baseball. He later spent time with the Reds, Rangers, and Giants, but didn’t do much with any of those clubs. Actually, he made one of the worst baserunning blunders in history while with the Giants (no video is available, so you’ll have to settle for a description that doesn’t do it justice). Rivera also once allegedly stole a glove from teammate Derek Jeter. Scouts like players who have tools, not players who are tools. Over parts of eight seasons, Rivera, who is the cousin of Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, hit .216/.307/.393 (82 OPS+). At last check, Rivera was swinging and missing for the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte in 2006 at age 32.

As always, thanks for joining me in our look back at the top prospects of ‘98. Our next installment includes a very tall pitcher, a very homeriffic pitcher, the ultimate Three True Outcomes hero, and pretty good third baseman who looked like he’d be better than he is. Until then…

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