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Prospects of 2001: Pacific Coast League

by Geoff Young on October 17th, 2006

As I was reading through the October 9 print version of Baseball America, which features reports on Top 10 prospects from each minor league (anyone can view the lists online and subscribers have access to the full reports), I was reminded that identifying top prospects is as much art as it is science. And, as with anything that attempts to foretell the future, it doesn’t always turn out quite right.

I should mention here that I love Baseball America and have been a subscriber for many years. This isn’t an indictment of that fine publication, but rather an example of how difficult it is to figure out which minor leaguers will turn into productive big leaguers. That disclaimer out of the way, here’s a quick look at Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects of the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A, highest minor league classification) from 2001:

1. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres. Burroughs hit .286/.352/.402 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in his first full big league season at age 22. He regressed badly in each of his next two seasons before being traded to Tampa Bay, where he spent most of the summer in the minors before being released. Burroughs will be 26 next year but at this point, he looks like a longshot to have much of a career.
2. Carlos Pena, 1b, Rangers. Pena hit .253/.321/.462 in his first full season at age 24. He split time between the Oakland A’s and Detroit Tigers, after having made his debut the previous year with Texas. In 2004, Pena knocked 27 homers while with the Tigers, but slipped in 2005 and was released the following spring. He had 33 at-bats in 2006 with the Boston Red Sox after spending most of the season in the New York Yankees farm system.
3. Corey Patterson, cf, Cubs. Patterson hit .253/.284/.392 in his first full season at age 22. He followed that up with a couple fairly strong performances in Chicago before sliding badly (.215/.254/.348) in 2005 and earning himself a trade to the Baltimore Orioles. Patterson salvaged his career in 2006, hitting .276/.314/.443, although a complete lack of plate discipline virtually kills any chances he may have had at reaching stardom as once predicted.
4. Bud Smith, lhp, Cardinals. Smith enjoyed one brilliant half season in St. Louis, followed by one not-so-brilliant half season. He was hurt, traded to the Philadelphia Phillies (for whom he never pitched a single inning), and released following the 2004 season. Signed by the Minnesota Twins later that same year, Smith never has made it back to the big leagues after a promising start that included a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres on September 3, 2001. Although he will be just 26 years old at the start of the 2007 season, it’s looking like he’ll finish his career with seven victories.
5. Juan Uribe, ss, Rockies. Uribe hit .240/.286/.341 in his first full season at age 22. If you can’t hit in Colorado, as they say, you probably can’t hit anywhere. In 2004 he was dealt to the Chicago White Sox and hit .283/.327/.506 in his first American League season. Uribe’s offense tailed off dramatically in each of the following two seasons, and now he is a low-average hitter who doesn’t draw walks but who does pop the occasional home run. He remains, however, a superior defender at shortstop.
6. Chris George, lhp, Royals. George is kind of like Bud Smith, but without the marginal success. He spent parts of four seasons in Kansas City, compiling a 14-20 record over 237 2/3 innings, with a whopping 6.48 ERA. George signed as a free agent with the Florida Marlins in November 2005 but never made it to the big club.
7. Ramon Vazquez, ss, Mariners. Vazquez was blocked in Seattle buy a guy named Alex Rodriguez and was shipped to San Diego following the 2001 season as part of a deal for another former top prospect, catcher Ben Davis. In his first full big league season, Vazquez hit .274/.344/.362 for the Padres and split time between second base and shortstop. He followed that up with a slightly inferior 2003 while playing mostly at shortstop before losing his job to phenom Khalil Greene the following year. Vazquez never adjusted to the part-time role and was traded to the Boston Red Sox as part of the package that brought Dave Roberts to San Diego. He has since moved onto Cleveland, where his career continues to fizzle.
8. Kurt Ainsworth, rhp, Giants. Ainsworth is another in the mold of Bud Smith and Chris George. Injuries and ineffectiveness have prevented him from having the big league career that many anticipated. Through parts of four seasons with the San Francisco Giants and the Baltimore Orioles, Ainsworth is 6-8 with a 5.19 ERA over 126 2/3 innings. He hasn’t pitched at the major league level since 2004, when he went 0-1 with a 9.68 ERA in seven starts.
9. Tony McKnight, rhp, Astros. More of the same from McKnight. He spent parts of the 2000 and 2001 seasons with the Houston Astros and the Pittsburgh Pirates, compiling a 7-7 record and 4.63 ERA over 122 2/3 innings. He hasn’t been seen in a big league uniform since.
10. Joel Pineiro, rhp, Mariners. Of the five pitchers in this list, Pineiro has had by far the most successful career. He went 14-7 with a 3.24 ERA over 194 1/3 innings in his first full season at age 23 and appeared to be on the rise. Pineiro followed that up with a 16 win season, although his other numbers dropped off somewhat. Since then, he has regressed considerably, bottoming out in 2006 with an 8-13 record and a 6.36 ERA over 165 2/3 innings. After being used exclusively as a starting pitcher from 2003 through 2005, Pineiro actually made 15 relief appearances in 2006, suggesting that his days as a rotation mainstay may be behind him.

Well, there you have it. A quick look back at what might have been and how difficult it is to predict the future. Was it good for you?

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POSTED IN: Minor Leagues